Group Knockout · Quarter-final

Norway vs England

Jul 11, 2026, 9:00 PM · Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 64%

Norway34.5%

Model baseline 30.2%

Draw24.9%

Model baseline 25.6%

England40.7%

Model baseline 44.2%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewNorway 34.5%Draw 24.9%England 40.7%

Market-implied viewNorway 40.9%Draw 23.7%England 35.4%

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Fresh

Market-implied viewNorway 40.9%Draw 23.7%England 35.4%

Crowd-implied outcomesNorway40.5%Draw23.5%England35.0%

As of: Aug 27, 2026, 7:01 PM
Reliability: 82%

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Norway1.31xG England1.63

1-111.6%

1-28.5%

2-18.5%

0-17.3%

1-07.2%

0-26.5%

2-25.8%

0-05.8%

2-05.2%

1-34.6%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Quarter-final · Jul 11, 2026, 9:00 PM · Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens.

Jul 11, 2026, 9:00 PM · reliability 92%

Social

6 arrested during Norway vs. England FIFA match at Hard Rock Stadium, deputies say - NBC 6 South Florida

Unverified social/media report: 6 arrested during Norway vs. England FIFA match at Hard Rock Stadium, deputies say    NBC 6 South Florida

Jul 12, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Social

“Norway Have Been Cheated”: Frustrated Manager Attacks FIFA Over Erling Haaland Goal After World Cup Exit - Yahoo Sports

Unverified social/media report: “Norway Have Been Cheated”: Frustrated Manager Attacks FIFA Over Erling Haaland Goal After World Cup Exit    Yahoo Sports

Jul 11, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Injury

Thomas Tuchel issues Kobbie Mainoo injury update after missing England World Cup win vs France - Metro.co.uk

Thomas Tuchel issues Kobbie Mainoo injury update after missing England World Cup win vs France    Metro.co.uk

Model Snapshot

Analysis generated: Aug 27, 2026, 7:01 PM
Version: wc26-knowledge-seed-poisson-dc-0.2.0
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026, 7:01 PM
Fixture status: Final

Team Notes

SocialUnverified social/media report: “Norway Have Been Cheated”: Frustrated Manager Attacks FIFA Over Erling Haaland Goal After World Cup Exit    Yahoo Sports
SocialUnverified social/media report: “Norway Have Been Cheated”: Frustrated Manager Attacks FIFA Over Erling Haaland Goal After World Cup Exit    Yahoo Sports
SocialUnverified social/media report: 6 arrested during Norway vs. England FIFA match at Hard Rock Stadium, deputies say    NBC 6 South Florida

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Norway vs England

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

6 arrested during Norway vs. England FIFA match at Hard Rock Stadium, deputies say - NBC 6 South Florida

“Norway Have Been Cheated”: Frustrated Manager Attacks FIFA Over Erling Haaland Goal After World Cup Exit - Yahoo Sports

Thomas Tuchel issues Kobbie Mainoo injury update after missing England World Cup win vs France - Metro.co.uk

France vs England Expert Picks, Lineups & Injury News - Sports probability Dime

England XI vs France: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup bronze final today - Yahoo Sports UK

France XI vs England: Predicted lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup bronze final today - Yahoo Sports UK

Team News: France vs. England injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

France lineup vs. England: Predicted XI for World Cup third-placed playoff after William Saliba injury blow - Sports Mole

England lineup vs. France: Predicted XI for World Cup 2026 third-placed playoff after Reece James injury blow - Sports Mole