Group Knockout · Quarter-final

France vs Morocco

Jul 9, 2026, 8:00 PM · Boston Stadium, Foxborough

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Low confidence · 44%

France39.3%

Model baseline 39.3%

Draw26.1%

Model baseline 26.1%

Morocco34.6%

Model baseline 34.6%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewFrance 39.3%Draw 26.1%Morocco 34.6%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG France1.51xG Morocco1.40

1-112.2%

2-18.7%

1-28.1%

1-07.5%

0-16.9%

2-06.2%

0-06.1%

2-26.1%

0-25.4%

3-14.4%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Quarter-final · Jul 9, 2026, 8:00 PM · Boston Stadium, Foxborough.

Jul 9, 2026, 8:00 PM · reliability 92%

Social

Watch: Morocco fans clash with police in London after World Cup exit; Paris stays calm after France win - The Times of India

Unverified social/media report: Watch: Morocco fans clash with police in London after World Cup exit; Paris stays calm after France win    The Times of India

Jul 10, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Social

FIFA World Cup: How teams have attempted to beat France and failed - The Indian Express

Unverified social/media report: FIFA World Cup: How teams have attempted to beat France and failed    The Indian Express

Jul 10, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Social