Group Knockout · Round of 16

United States vs Belgium

Jul 7, 2026, 3:00 AM · Seattle Stadium, Seattle

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 50%

United States40.4%

Model baseline 40.4%

Draw25.9%

Model baseline 25.9%

Belgium33.7%

Model baseline 33.7%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewUnited States 40.4%Draw 25.9%Belgium 33.7%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG United States1.54xG Belgium1.39

1-112.1%

2-18.8%

1-27.9%

1-07.6%

0-16.8%

2-06.3%

2-26.1%

0-06.1%

0-25.2%

3-14.5%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Round of 16 · Jul 7, 2026, 3:00 AM · Seattle Stadium, Seattle.

Jul 7, 2026, 3:00 AM · reliability 92%

Injury

Is Pedri injured? Why the Spain star is not playing against Belgium in today's World Cup match | Hindustan Times - Hindustan Times

Is Pedri injured? Why the Spain star is not playing against Belgium in today's World Cup match | Hindustan Times    Hindustan Times

Jul 11, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Belgium's Courtois exits with injury before Spain winner - ESPN

Belgium's Courtois exits with injury before Spain winner    ESPN

Jul 10, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Belgium Captain Youri Tielemans Out vs. Spain After Injury In Warmups - FOX Sports

Belgium Captain Youri Tielemans Out vs. Spain After Injury In Warmups    FOX Sports

United States vs Belgium

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

Is Pedri injured? Why the Spain star is not playing against Belgium in today's World Cup match | Hindustan Times - Hindustan Times

Belgium's Courtois exits with injury before Spain winner - ESPN

Belgium Captain Youri Tielemans Out vs. Spain After Injury In Warmups - FOX Sports

Belgium XI vs Spain: DE BRUYNE IN - Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup 2026 today - Yahoo Sports UK

Team News: Spain vs. Belgium injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

FIFA Suspends Balogun Red-Card Ban for USA vs Belgium Round of 16 in Seattle: how 43 outlets framed it - NewsCord

USA vs. Belgium World Cup 2026: 3 Historic Records Team USA Can Break With a Win Tonight - Muscle & Fitness

Belgium vs USA lineups: Confirmed team news, predicted XIs and injury latest for World Cup 2026 - London Evening Standard

Team News: USA vs. Belgium injury, suspension list, predicted XIs - Sports Mole

Belgium XI vs Senegal: Confirmed team news, predicted lineup, injury latest for World Cup 2026 - AOL.co.uk