Group Knockout · Round of 32

Australia vs Egypt

Jul 4, 2026, 2:30 AM · Dallas Stadium, Arlington

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Low confidence · 45%

Australia43.0%

Model baseline 43.0%

Draw26.1%

Model baseline 26.1%

Egypt30.9%

Model baseline 30.9%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewAustralia 43.0%Draw 26.1%Egypt 30.9%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Australia1.57xG Egypt1.30

1-112.3%

2-19.1%

1-08.3%

1-27.5%

2-07.0%

0-16.7%

0-06.4%

2-25.9%

0-24.8%

3-14.7%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Round of 32 · Jul 4, 2026, 2:30 AM · Dallas Stadium, Arlington.

Jul 4, 2026, 2:30 AM · reliability 92%

Social

Egypt team staff member forcefully pushed by US police officer as fans gather outside team hotel ahead of - The Times of India

Unverified social/media report: Egypt team staff member forcefully pushed by US police officer as fans gather outside team hotel ahead of    The Times of India

Jul 21, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Social

Egypt say Dallas police officer pushed player, team director at World Cup - Al Jazeera

Unverified social/media report: Egypt say Dallas police officer pushed player, team director at World Cup    Al Jazeera

Jul 3, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Model Snapshot

Analysis generated: Aug 27, 2026, 7:15 PM
Version: wc26-knowledge-seed-poisson-dc-0.2.0
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026, 7:15 PM
Fixture status: Final

Team Notes

SocialUnverified social/media report: Egypt say Dallas police officer pushed player, team director at World Cup    Al Jazeera
SocialUnverified social/media report: Egypt say police officer pushed player, team director at World Cup    Reuters
SocialUnverified social/media report: Egypt team staff member forcefully pushed by US police officer as fans gather outside team hotel ahead of    The Times of India
SocialUnverified social/media report: Egypt team staff member forcefully pushed by US police officer as fans gather outside team hotel ahead of    The Times of India
SocialUnverified social/media report: Egypt FA respond after national team staff involved in ugly incident with American police ahead of Australia clash    SPORTbible

This product provides statistical analysis for informational and research purposes only. It does not enable transactions, prizes, or financial instructions.

Australia vs Egypt

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

Egypt team staff member forcefully pushed by US police officer as fans gather outside team hotel ahead of - The Times of India

Egypt say Dallas police officer pushed player, team director at World Cup - Al Jazeera

Egypt say police officer pushed player, team director at World Cup - Reuters

Egypt FA respond after national team staff involved in ugly incident with American police ahead of Australia clash - SPORTbible

Team News: Argentina vs. Egypt injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Argentina lineup vs. Egypt: Predicted XI for World Cup 2026 last-16 including triple fitness update - Sports Mole

Will Mohamed Salah play today vs Australia? Latest on the Egypt star’s injury status for FIFA World Cup R - The Times of India

Australia vs Egypt lineups: Starting XIs, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup 2026 today - Yahoo Sports UK

World Cup Buzz: Mohamed Salah Starting For Egypt After Knockout Round Injury - FOX Sports