Group Knockout · Round of 32

Argentina vs Cape Verde

Jul 3, 2026, 6:00 PM · Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 57%

Argentina72.3%

Model baseline 72.3%

Draw16.6%

Model baseline 16.6%

Cape Verde11.1%

Model baseline 11.1%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewArgentina 72.3%Draw 16.6%Cape Verde 11.1%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Argentina2.60xG Cape Verde0.95

2-09.7%

2-19.2%

3-08.4%

3-18.0%

1-17.5%

1-07.0%

4-05.5%

4-15.2%

2-24.4%

3-23.8%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Round of 32 · Jul 3, 2026, 6:00 PM · Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens.

Jul 3, 2026, 6:00 PM · reliability 92%

Social

‘Rifts began to appear’: Why many Latin Americans want Spain to beat Argentina in the World Cup final - The Guardian

Unverified social/media report: ‘Rifts began to appear’: Why many Latin Americans want Spain to beat Argentina in the World Cup final    The Guardian

Jul 18, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Social

Argentina’s Nicolas Paz provides injury update amid rumors of roster change before 2026 World Cup - bolavip.com

Unverified social/media report: Argentina’s Nicolas Paz provides injury update amid rumors of roster change before 2026 World Cup    bolavip.com

Jun 3, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Injury

Will Lionel Messi play tonight vs the Cape Verde? Latest update on the Argentina captain’s injury report - The Times of India

Will Lionel Messi play tonight vs the Cape Verde? Latest update on the Argentina captain’s injury report    The Times of India

Argentina vs Cape Verde

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

‘Rifts began to appear’: Why many Latin Americans want Spain to beat Argentina in the World Cup final - The Guardian

Argentina’s Nicolas Paz provides injury update amid rumors of roster change before 2026 World Cup - bolavip.com

Will Lionel Messi play tonight vs the Cape Verde? Latest update on the Argentina captain’s injury report - The Times of India

Team News: Spain vs. Argentina injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Argentina XI vs Spain: Confirmed team news, predicted lineup, injury latest for World Cup final - AOL.co.uk

Argentina injury, suspension list and return dates for World Cup 2026 final: Cristian Romero, Leandro Paredes latest - Sports Mole

Spain lineup vs. Argentina: Predicted XI for World Cup 2026 final after Lamine Yamal injury scare - Sports Mole

England XI vs Argentina: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup semi-final today - uk.sports.yahoo.com

Argentina injury, suspension list and return dates for England World Cup semi-final: Latest on Lionel Messi, Cristian Romero - Sports Mole

Argentina XI vs England: Confirmed team news, predicted lineup and injury latest for World Cup 2026 - AOL.co.uk