Group Knockout · Round of 32

Belgium vs Senegal

Jul 1, 2026, 11:00 PM · Seattle Stadium, Seattle

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 48%

Belgium38.1%

Model baseline 38.1%

Draw26.1%

Model baseline 26.1%

Senegal35.8%

Model baseline 35.8%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewBelgium 38.1%Draw 26.1%Senegal 35.8%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Belgium1.48xG Senegal1.43

1-112.2%

2-18.5%

1-28.2%

1-07.3%

0-17.1%

2-26.1%

0-06.1%

2-06.0%

0-25.6%

3-14.2%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Round of 32 · Jul 1, 2026, 11:00 PM · Seattle Stadium, Seattle.

Jul 1, 2026, 11:00 PM · reliability 92%

Social

Renard or Vieira: political conflicts hamper the appointment of Senegal's new coach - Goal.com

Unverified social/media report: Renard or Vieira: political conflicts hamper the appointment of Senegal's new coach    Goal.com

Jul 26, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Injury

Is Pedri injured? Why the Spain star is not playing against Belgium in today's World Cup match | Hindustan Times - Hindustan Times

Is Pedri injured? Why the Spain star is not playing against Belgium in today's World Cup match | Hindustan Times    Hindustan Times

Jul 11, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Belgium's Courtois exits with injury before Spain winner - ESPN

Belgium's Courtois exits with injury before Spain winner    ESPN

Belgium vs Senegal

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

Renard or Vieira: political conflicts hamper the appointment of Senegal's new coach - Goal.com

Is Pedri injured? Why the Spain star is not playing against Belgium in today's World Cup match | Hindustan Times - Hindustan Times

Belgium's Courtois exits with injury before Spain winner - ESPN

Belgium Captain Youri Tielemans Out vs. Spain After Injury In Warmups - FOX Sports

Belgium XI vs Spain: DE BRUYNE IN - Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup 2026 today - Yahoo Sports UK

Team News: Spain vs. Belgium injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Belgium vs USA lineups: Confirmed team news, predicted XIs and injury latest for World Cup 2026 - London Evening Standard

Team News: USA vs. Belgium injury, suspension list, predicted XIs - Sports Mole

Belgium XI vs Senegal: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup 2026 - Yahoo Sports UK

Expert Picks, probability Trends & Injury News for Belgium vs Senegal - Sports probability Dime