Group Knockout · Round of 32

Mexico vs Ecuador

Jul 1, 2026, 3:00 AM · Mexico City Stadium, Mexico City

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 50%

Mexico43.1%

Model baseline 43.1%

Draw25.5%

Model baseline 25.5%

Ecuador31.4%

Model baseline 31.4%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewMexico 43.1%Draw 25.5%Ecuador 31.4%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Mexico1.62xG Ecuador1.36

1-111.9%

2-19.1%

1-27.6%

1-07.6%

2-06.7%

0-16.2%

2-26.2%

0-05.8%

3-14.9%

0-24.7%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Round of 32 · Jul 1, 2026, 3:00 AM · Mexico City Stadium, Mexico City.

Jul 1, 2026, 3:00 AM · reliability 92%

Social

Mexico authorities announce police action for World Cup showdown against England after tragic incident - The Independent

Unverified social/media report: Mexico authorities announce police action for World Cup showdown against England after tragic incident    The Independent

Jul 5, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Injury

Mexico vs England team news, injuries and confirmed lineups - Squawka

Mexico vs England team news, injuries and confirmed lineups    Squawka

Jul 5, 2026, 11:42 PM · reliability 66%

Injury

England star 'nursing injury and huge doubt for Mexico clash' as Thomas Tuchel faces another selection dilemma - The Sun

England star 'nursing injury and huge doubt for Mexico clash' as Thomas Tuchel faces another selection dilemma    The Sun

Jul 5, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Team News: Mexico vs. England injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Team News: Mexico vs. England injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026    Sports Mole

Mexico vs Ecuador

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

Mexico authorities announce police action for World Cup showdown against England after tragic incident - The Independent

Mexico vs England team news, injuries and confirmed lineups - Squawka

England star 'nursing injury and huge doubt for Mexico clash' as Thomas Tuchel faces another selection dilemma - The Sun

Team News: Mexico vs. England injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

England injury, suspension list and return dates vs. Mexico: Declan Rice, Reece James, Jarell Quansah latest - Sports Mole

England lineup vs. Mexico: Predicted XI for World Cup 2026 last 16 after Declan Rice injury update - Sports Mole

England injury news vs. Mexico: Declan Rice's "terrible" pain explained as World Cup 2026 fears emerge before round of 32 - Sports Mole

Mexico vs. England: Three Lions given Reece James injury boost before World Cup last-16 clash - Sports Mole

Washington Post. . Mexico defeated Ecuador 2-0, advancing to the World Cup's round of 16 for the first time in 40 years. A phrase carrying fans through the matches: "¿Y si sí?" For those doubting Mexico's ability to advance, fans are saying, "But what if we do?" - facebook.com