Group Knockout · Round of 32

France vs Sweden

Jun 30, 2026, 9:00 PM · New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 52%

France46.5%

Model baseline 46.5%

Draw25.1%

Model baseline 25.1%

Sweden28.4%

Model baseline 28.4%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewFrance 46.5%Draw 25.1%Sweden 28.4%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Fresh

Crowd-implied outcomesFrance21.0%

As of: Aug 27, 2026, 7:14 PM
Reliability: 38%
Issue: Matched Polymarket event, but no complete win/draw/loss moneyline markets were found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG France1.70xG Sweden1.29

1-111.7%

2-19.4%

1-07.9%

2-07.3%

1-27.1%

2-26.1%

0-15.8%

0-05.7%

3-15.3%

0-24.2%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Round of 32 · Jun 30, 2026, 9:00 PM · New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford.

Jun 30, 2026, 9:00 PM · reliability 92%

Injury

Will Kylian Mbappe play tonight vs Paraguay? Latest update on the France captain’s injury report for FIFA - The Times of India

Will Kylian Mbappe play tonight vs Paraguay? Latest update on the France captain’s injury report for FIFA    The Times of India

Jul 20, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Thomas Tuchel issues Kobbie Mainoo injury update after missing England World Cup win vs France - Metro.co.uk

Thomas Tuchel issues Kobbie Mainoo injury update after missing England World Cup win vs France    Metro.co.uk

Jul 19, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

France vs Sweden

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

Will Kylian Mbappe play tonight vs Paraguay? Latest update on the France captain’s injury report for FIFA - The Times of India

Thomas Tuchel issues Kobbie Mainoo injury update after missing England World Cup win vs France - Metro.co.uk

France vs England Expert Picks, Lineups & Injury News - Sports probability Dime

France XI vs England: Predicted lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup bronze final today - Yahoo Sports UK

England XI vs France: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup bronze final today - Yahoo Sports UK

Team News: France vs. England injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

France lineup vs. England: Predicted XI for World Cup third-placed playoff after William Saliba injury blow - Sports Mole

England lineup vs. France: Predicted XI for World Cup 2026 third-placed playoff after Reece James injury blow - Sports Mole

France vs Preview: Team News, Injury Updates, Full Squads For FIFA World Cup 2026 Semi-Final - The Sunday Guardian

France XI vs Spain: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup semi-final - Yahoo Sports