Group Knockout · Round of 32

Netherlands vs Morocco

Jun 30, 2026, 3:00 AM · Estadio Monterrey, Monterrey

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Low confidence · 44%

Netherlands37.7%

Model baseline 37.7%

Draw26.3%

Model baseline 26.3%

Morocco36.0%

Model baseline 36.0%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewNetherlands 37.7%Draw 26.3%Morocco 36.0%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Netherlands1.45xG Morocco1.41

1-112.4%

2-18.5%

1-28.3%

1-07.6%

0-17.3%

0-06.4%

2-26.0%

2-06.0%

0-25.7%

3-14.1%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Round of 32 · Jun 30, 2026, 3:00 AM · Estadio Monterrey, Monterrey.

Jun 30, 2026, 3:00 AM · reliability 92%

Social

‘I’d do it again’: Ronald Koeman defiant in defeat after the Netherlands sent home - The Guardian

Unverified social/media report: ‘I’d do it again’: Ronald Koeman defiant in defeat after the Netherlands sent home    The Guardian

Jun 30, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Social

Watch: Moroccan fans clash with Dutch police in The Hague after Morocco knock Netherlands out of World Cu - The Times of India

Unverified social/media report: Watch: Moroccan fans clash with Dutch police in The Hague after Morocco knock Netherlands out of World Cu    The Times of India

Jun 30, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Social

Morocco fans overjoyed in cities after beating Oranje; Fireworks thrown at Hague police - NL Times

Unverified social/media report: Morocco fans overjoyed in cities after beating Oranje; Fireworks thrown at Hague police    NL Times

Model Snapshot

Analysis generated: Oct 11, 2026, 11:23 PM
Version: wc26-knowledge-seed-poisson-dc-0.2.0
Last updated: Oct 11, 2026, 11:23 PM
Fixture status: Final

Team Notes

SocialUnverified social/media report: ‘I’d do it again’: Ronald Koeman defiant in defeat after the Netherlands sent home    The Guardian
SocialUnverified social/media report: Watch: Moroccan fans clash with Dutch police in The Hague after Morocco knock Netherlands out of World Cu    The Times of India
SocialUnverified social/media report: Morocco fans overjoyed in cities after beating Oranje; Fireworks thrown at Hague police    NL Times
SocialUnverified social/media report: Riot police charge as fans hit by water cannon after Netherlands vs Morocco penalty shootout    The Mirror
SocialUnverified social/media report: Police, soccer fans clash in The Hague after Morocco stuns Netherlands    Business Standard
SocialUnverified social/media report: Fans jubilant after Morocco beat Netherlands, handful of arrests    DutchNews.nl

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Netherlands vs Morocco

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

‘I’d do it again’: Ronald Koeman defiant in defeat after the Netherlands sent home - The Guardian

Watch: Moroccan fans clash with Dutch police in The Hague after Morocco knock Netherlands out of World Cu - The Times of India

Morocco fans overjoyed in cities after beating Oranje; Fireworks thrown at Hague police - NL Times

Riot police charge as fans hit by water cannon after Netherlands vs Morocco penalty shootout - The Mirror

Police, soccer fans clash in The Hague after Morocco stuns Netherlands - Business Standard

Fans jubilant after Morocco beat Netherlands, handful of arrests - DutchNews.nl

Netherlands Faces Greece in Nations League Clash Amid Growing Injury List - SuaraGarut.ID

Greece 2-2 Netherlands: Christos Tzolis injury, Dutch draw after fightback - BBC

Cody Gakpo subbed off with injury during Serbia vs Netherlands UEFA Nations League match - Khel Now

Arsenal star Kai Havertz forced off injured in Netherlands vs Germany clash - Bulinews