Group Knockout · Round of 32

Netherlands vs Morocco

Jun 30, 2026, 3:00 AM · Estadio Monterrey, Monterrey

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Low confidence · 45%

Netherlands44.5%

Model baseline 44.5%

Draw25.9%

Model baseline 25.9%

Morocco29.6%

Model baseline 29.6%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewNetherlands 44.5%Draw 25.9%Morocco 29.6%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Netherlands1.60xG Morocco1.27

1-112.2%

2-19.2%

1-08.4%

1-27.3%

2-07.3%

0-16.5%

0-06.4%

2-25.8%

3-14.9%

0-24.6%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Round of 32 · Jun 30, 2026, 3:00 AM · Estadio Monterrey, Monterrey.

Jun 30, 2026, 3:00 AM · reliability 92%

Social

‘I’d do it again’: Ronald Koeman defiant in defeat after the Netherlands sent home - The Guardian

Unverified social/media report: ‘I’d do it again’: Ronald Koeman defiant in defeat after the Netherlands sent home    The Guardian

Jun 30, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Social

Watch: Moroccan fans clash with Dutch police in The Hague after Morocco knock Netherlands out of World Cu - The Times of India

Unverified social/media report: Watch: Moroccan fans clash with Dutch police in The Hague after Morocco knock Netherlands out of World Cu    The Times of India

Jun 30, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Social

Fans jubilant after Morocco beat Netherlands, handful of arrests - DutchNews.nl

Unverified social/media report: Fans jubilant after Morocco beat Netherlands, handful of arrests    DutchNews.nl

Model Snapshot

Analysis generated: Aug 27, 2026, 7:03 PM
Version: wc26-knowledge-seed-poisson-dc-0.2.0
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026, 7:03 PM
Fixture status: Final

Team Notes

SocialUnverified social/media report: ‘I’d do it again’: Ronald Koeman defiant in defeat after the Netherlands sent home    The Guardian
SocialUnverified social/media report: Watch: Moroccan fans clash with Dutch police in The Hague after Morocco knock Netherlands out of World Cu    The Times of India
SocialUnverified social/media report: Fans jubilant after Morocco beat Netherlands, handful of arrests    DutchNews.nl
SocialUnverified social/media report: Riot police charge as fans hit by water cannon after Netherlands vs Morocco penalty shootout    The Mirror
SocialUnverified social/media report: Police, soccer fans clash in The Hague after Morocco stuns Netherlands    Business Standard
SocialUnverified social/media report: Morocco Victory Over Netherlands Sparks Clashes As Fans Face Dutch Police in The Hague    News18

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Netherlands vs Morocco

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

‘I’d do it again’: Ronald Koeman defiant in defeat after the Netherlands sent home - The Guardian

Watch: Moroccan fans clash with Dutch police in The Hague after Morocco knock Netherlands out of World Cu - The Times of India

Fans jubilant after Morocco beat Netherlands, handful of arrests - DutchNews.nl

Riot police charge as fans hit by water cannon after Netherlands vs Morocco penalty shootout - The Mirror

Police, soccer fans clash in The Hague after Morocco stuns Netherlands - Business Standard

Morocco Victory Over Netherlands Sparks Clashes As Fans Face Dutch Police in The Hague - News18

France vs Morocco Team News, Predicted Lineup, Injuries For World Cup Quarterfinal - Sportscasting

Is Ismael Saibari playing for Morocco vs. France today? Latest injury and lineup updates - USA Today

Morocco XI vs France: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup quarter-final today - Yahoo Sports UK

France XI vs Morocco: NO Tchouameni - Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup 2026 today - Yahoo Sports UK