Group Knockout · Round of 32

Germany vs Paraguay

Jun 29, 2026, 8:30 PM · Boston Stadium, Foxborough

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 55%

Germany62.6%

Model baseline 62.6%

Draw21.0%

Model baseline 21.0%

Paraguay16.4%

Model baseline 16.4%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewGermany 62.6%Draw 21.0%Paraguay 16.4%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Germany2.15xG Paraguay1.02

2-19.9%

1-19.8%

2-09.7%

1-08.4%

3-17.1%

3-06.9%

2-25.1%

0-04.7%

1-24.7%

4-13.8%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Round of 32 · Jun 29, 2026, 8:30 PM · Boston Stadium, Foxborough.

Jun 29, 2026, 8:30 PM · reliability 92%

Social

Unhappy families: Matthäus claims Germany travel plans caused World Cup rift - The Guardian

Unverified social/media report: Unhappy families: Matthäus claims Germany travel plans caused World Cup rift    The Guardian

Jun 30, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Social

‘We feel used and cheated’: Thomas Muller slams VAR after Germany’s World Cup heartbreak - The Times of India

Unverified social/media report: ‘We feel used and cheated’: Thomas Muller slams VAR after Germany’s World Cup heartbreak    The Times of India

Jun 30, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Injury

Will Kylian Mbappe play tonight vs Paraguay? Latest update on the France captain’s injury report for FIFA - The Times of India

Will Kylian Mbappe play tonight vs Paraguay? Latest update on the France captain’s injury report for FIFA    The Times of India

Germany vs Paraguay

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

Unhappy families: Matthäus claims Germany travel plans caused World Cup rift - The Guardian

‘We feel used and cheated’: Thomas Muller slams VAR after Germany’s World Cup heartbreak - The Times of India

Will Kylian Mbappe play tonight vs Paraguay? Latest update on the France captain’s injury report for FIFA - The Times of India

France's Aurélien Tchouaméni out vs. Paraguay with groin injury - ESPN

World Cup news: France suffer major late injury blow ahead of Paraguay last-16 clash - Sports Mole

France XI vs Paraguay: Confirmed team news, predicted lineup and injury latest for World Cup 2026 - AOL.co.uk

Team News: Paraguay vs. France injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Germany XI vs Paraguay: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup 2026 today - Yahoo Sports UK