Group Knockout · Final

Spain vs Argentina

Jul 19, 2026, 7:00 PM · New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Low confidence · 44%

Spain37.4%

Model baseline 37.4%

Draw26.1%

Model baseline 26.1%

Argentina36.5%

Model baseline 36.5%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewSpain 37.4%Draw 26.1%Argentina 36.5%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Spain1.47xG Argentina1.45

1-112.2%

2-18.4%

1-28.3%

1-07.3%

0-17.2%

2-26.1%

0-06.1%

2-05.8%

0-25.7%

3-14.1%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Final · Jul 19, 2026, 7:00 PM · New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford.

Jul 19, 2026, 7:00 PM · reliability 92%

Social

World Cup 2026: Fifa opens disciplinary proceedings against Argentina - BBC

Unverified social/media report: World Cup 2026: Fifa opens disciplinary proceedings against Argentina    BBC

Jul 29, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Social

Argentina vs Spain Cheat Sheet: What to Know Before Trading on Today's World Cup Final - Yahoo Sports

Unverified social/media report: Argentina vs Spain Cheat Sheet: What to Know Before Trading on Today's World Cup Final    Yahoo Sports

Jul 19, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Social

Argentina’s Nicolas Paz provides injury update amid rumors of roster change before 2026 World Cup - bolavip.com

Unverified social/media report: Argentina’s Nicolas Paz provides injury update amid rumors of roster change before 2026 World Cup    bolavip.com

Jun 3, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Model Snapshot

Analysis generated: Aug 27, 2026, 7:15 PM
Version: wc26-knowledge-seed-poisson-dc-0.2.0
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026, 7:15 PM
Fixture status: Scheduled

Team Notes

SocialUnverified social/media report: Argentina vs Spain Cheat Sheet: What to Know Before Trading on Today's World Cup Final    Yahoo Sports
SocialUnverified social/media report: World Cup 2026: Fifa opens disciplinary proceedings against Argentina    BBC
SocialUnverified social/media report: World Cup 2026: Fifa opens disciplinary proceedings against Argentina    BBC
SocialUnverified social/media report: Argentina’s Nicolas Paz provides injury update amid rumors of roster change before 2026 World Cup    bolavip.com

This product provides statistical analysis for informational and research purposes only. It does not enable transactions, prizes, or financial instructions.

Spain vs Argentina

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

World Cup 2026: Fifa opens disciplinary proceedings against Argentina - BBC

Argentina vs Spain Cheat Sheet: What to Know Before Trading on Today's World Cup Final - Yahoo Sports

Argentina’s Nicolas Paz provides injury update amid rumors of roster change before 2026 World Cup - bolavip.com

Spain XI vs Argentina: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup final - Yahoo Sports

Lisandro Martinez injury: Spain defender leaves World Cup final vs. Argentina - Yahoo Sports

Team News: Spain vs. Argentina injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Spain XI vs Argentina: Confirmed team news, predicted lineup, injury latest for World Cup final - AOL.com