Group Knockout · Third-place

France vs England

Jul 18, 2026, 9:00 PM · Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 49%

France34.3%

Model baseline 34.3%

Draw26.0%

Model baseline 26.0%

England39.7%

Model baseline 39.7%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewFrance 34.3%Draw 26.0%England 39.7%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG France1.40xG England1.52

1-112.2%

1-28.7%

2-18.0%

0-17.6%

1-06.9%

0-26.3%

0-06.1%

2-26.1%

2-05.3%

1-34.4%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Third-place · Jul 18, 2026, 9:00 PM · Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens.

Jul 18, 2026, 9:00 PM · reliability 92%

Social

England vs France Cheat Sheet: What to Know Before Trading on Today's World Cup Third-Place Match - Yahoo Sports

Unverified social/media report: England vs France Cheat Sheet: What to Know Before Trading on Today's World Cup Third-Place Match    Yahoo Sports

Jul 18, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Injury

Will Kylian Mbappe play tonight vs Paraguay? Latest update on the France captain’s injury report for FIFA - The Times of India

Will Kylian Mbappe play tonight vs Paraguay? Latest update on the France captain’s injury report for FIFA    The Times of India

Jul 20, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Thomas Tuchel issues Kobbie Mainoo injury update after missing England World Cup win vs France - Metro.co.uk

Thomas Tuchel issues Kobbie Mainoo injury update after missing England World Cup win vs France    Metro.co.uk