Group Knockout · Semi-final

France vs Spain

Jul 14, 2026, 7:00 PM · Dallas Stadium, Arlington

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 49%

France38.3%

Model baseline 38.3%

Draw25.6%

Model baseline 25.6%

Spain36.1%

Model baseline 36.1%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewFrance 38.3%Draw 25.6%Spain 36.1%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG France1.53xG Spain1.48

1-111.9%

2-18.5%

1-28.3%

1-06.9%

0-16.7%

2-26.3%

2-05.8%

0-05.6%

0-25.4%

3-14.3%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Semi-final · Jul 14, 2026, 7:00 PM · Dallas Stadium, Arlington.

Jul 14, 2026, 7:00 PM · reliability 92%

Social

France’s World Cup exit sees 98 arrests made in Paris after Spain loss - The New York Times

Unverified social/media report: France’s World Cup exit sees 98 arrests made in Paris after Spain loss    The New York Times

Jul 18, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Injury

Spain XI vs Argentina: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup final - Yahoo Sports

Spain XI vs Argentina: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup final    Yahoo Sports

Jul 19, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

France’s William Saliba forced off with injury in World Cup semi-final vs. Spain - The Athletic - The New York Times

France’s William Saliba forced off with injury in World Cup semi-final vs. Spain - The Athletic    The New York Times

Jul 18, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

France XI vs England: Predicted lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup bronze final today - Yahoo Sports UK

France XI vs England: Predicted lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup bronze final today    Yahoo Sports UK

France vs Spain

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

France’s World Cup exit sees 98 arrests made in Paris after Spain loss - The New York Times

Spain XI vs Argentina: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup final - Yahoo Sports

France’s William Saliba forced off with injury in World Cup semi-final vs. Spain - The Athletic - The New York Times

France XI vs England: Predicted lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup bronze final today - Yahoo Sports UK

England XI vs France: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup bronze final today - Yahoo Sports UK

Spain XI vs Argentina: Confirmed team news, predicted lineup, injury latest for World Cup final - AOL.com

Team News: Spain vs. Argentina injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Spain Vs Argentina, FIFA World Cup 2026 Final: Team News, Predicted XIs, Latest Injury Update - All You Need To Know - Outlook India

Spain injury, suspension list and return dates for World Cup 2026 final: Lamine Yamal, Pedro Porro latest - Sports Mole