Group D · Group stage

United States vs Paraguay

Jun 13, 2026, 1:00 AM · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 58%

United States61.2%

Model baseline 61.2%

Draw21.7%

Model baseline 21.7%

Paraguay17.1%

Model baseline 17.1%

Market Sources

Third-party probability and odds inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewUnited States 61.2%Draw 21.7%Paraguay 17.1%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Polymarket

Prediction market API

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG United States2.07xG Paraguay1.01

1-110.2%

2-19.9%

2-09.8%

1-08.9%

3-16.9%

3-06.8%

0-05.2%

2-25.0%

1-24.9%

0-14.1%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Group stage · Jun 13, 2026, 1:00 AM · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood.

Jun 13, 2026, 1:00 AM · reliability 92%

Injury

Team News: Paraguay vs. Australia injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Team News: Paraguay vs. Australia injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026    Sports Mole

Jun 24, 2026, 2:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Australia lineup vs. Paraguay: Predicted XI for World Cup 2026 Group D game as Mathew Leckie injury fears mount - Sports Mole

Australia lineup vs. Paraguay: Predicted XI for World Cup 2026 Group D game as Mathew Leckie injury fears mount    Sports Mole

Jun 23, 2026, 10:27 PM · reliability 66%

Injury

Team News: Turkey vs Paraguay injury, suspension list, predicted XIs - Sports Mole

Team News: Turkey vs Paraguay injury, suspension list, predicted XIs    Sports Mole

Jun 19, 2026, 3:00 AM · reliability 66%

United States vs Paraguay

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Prediction market API

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

Team News: Paraguay vs. Australia injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Australia lineup vs. Paraguay: Predicted XI for World Cup 2026 Group D game as Mathew Leckie injury fears mount - Sports Mole

Team News: Turkey vs Paraguay injury, suspension list, predicted XIs - Sports Mole

USA’s Pulisic shrugs off injury scare after 4-1 World Cup win over Paraguay - Al Jazeera

Richards starts USMNT World Cup opener vs. Paraguay after injury - ESPN

USA vs Paraguay injury, suspension list, predicted XIs - Sports Mole

World Cup 2026: United States gets more brutal injury news days ahead of roster reveal - Yahoo Sports

World Cup 2026: United States gets bad injury news 15 days from roster reveal - MassLive