Group D · Group stage

United States vs Australia

Jun 19, 2026, 7:00 PM · Lumen Field, Seattle

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 53%

United States49.6%

Model baseline 49.6%

Draw24.9%

Model baseline 24.9%

Australia25.6%

Model baseline 25.6%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewUnited States 49.6%Draw 24.9%Australia 25.6%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG United States1.75xG Australia1.20

1-111.7%

2-19.6%

1-08.5%

2-08.0%

1-26.6%

0-05.9%

2-25.8%

0-15.6%

3-15.6%

3-04.7%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Group stage · Jun 19, 2026, 7:00 PM · Lumen Field, Seattle.

Jun 19, 2026, 7:00 PM · reliability 92%

Injury

Australia vs Egypt lineups: Starting XIs, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup 2026 today - Yahoo Sports UK

Australia vs Egypt lineups: Starting XIs, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup 2026 today    Yahoo Sports UK

Jul 3, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Will Mohamed Salah play today vs Australia? Latest on the Egypt star’s injury status for FIFA World Cup R - The Times of India

Will Mohamed Salah play today vs Australia? Latest on the Egypt star’s injury status for FIFA World Cup R    The Times of India

Jul 3, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Mohamed Salah given injury update lifeline by Egypt coach ahead of Australia showdown - SPORTbible

Mohamed Salah given injury update lifeline by Egypt coach ahead of Australia showdown    SPORTbible

United States vs Australia

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

Australia vs Egypt lineups: Starting XIs, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup 2026 today - Yahoo Sports UK

Will Mohamed Salah play today vs Australia? Latest on the Egypt star’s injury status for FIFA World Cup R - The Times of India

Mohamed Salah given injury update lifeline by Egypt coach ahead of Australia showdown - SPORTbible

Egypt to give Salah until last minute to prove fitness for Socceroos clash - ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Team News: Australia vs. Egypt injury, suspension list, predicted XIs - Sports Mole

Egypt hits by injuries ahead of Australia tie - Egyptian Gazette

Australia 'gutted' as Italiano, Leckie out of World Cup with injuries - Reuters

Australia lineup vs. Paraguay: Predicted XI for World Cup 2026 Group D game as Mathew Leckie injury fears mount - Sports Mole

Team News: Paraguay vs. Australia injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

2026 World Cup: USA vs. Australia confirmed line-ups – Pulisic ruled out - Yahoo Sports