Group H · Group stage

Uruguay vs Spain

Jun 27, 2026, 12:00 AM · Estadio Akron, Zapopan

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 63%

Uruguay25.1%

Model baseline 30.1%

Draw25.4%

Model baseline 25.5%

Spain49.5%

Model baseline 44.4%

Market Sources

Third-party probability and odds inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewUruguay 25.1%Draw 25.4%Spain 49.5%

Market-implied viewUruguay 14.4%Draw 25.4%Spain 60.2%

Polymarket

Uruguay vs. Spain

Fresh

Market-implied viewUruguay 14.4%Draw 25.4%Spain 60.2%

Polymarket outcome pricesUruguay14.5%Draw25.5%Spain60.5%

As of: Jun 26, 2026, 12:10 PM
Reliability: 82%
Issue: Multiple Polymarket events matched; selected the highest-scoring match event.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Uruguay1.32xG Spain1.64

1-111.9%

1-210.3%

0-18.7%

0-27.8%

2-16.2%

2-26.1%

0-05.8%

1-35.6%

1-05.1%

0-34.3%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Group stage · Jun 27, 2026, 12:00 AM · Estadio Akron, Zapopan.

Jun 27, 2026, 12:00 AM · reliability 92%

Injury

Team News: Uruguay vs. Spain injury, suspension list, predicted XIs - Sports Mole

Team News: Uruguay vs. Spain injury, suspension list, predicted XIs    Sports Mole

Jun 26, 2026, 12:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Uruguay lineup vs. Spain: Predicted XI for 2026 World Cup fixture including double injury blow - Sports Mole

Uruguay lineup vs. Spain: Predicted XI for 2026 World Cup fixture including double injury blow    Sports Mole

Jun 24, 2026, 6:49 PM · reliability 66%

Injury

Team News: Uruguay vs. Cape Verde injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Team News: Uruguay vs. Cape Verde injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026    Sports Mole

Jun 21, 2026, 12:45 AM · reliability 66%

Uruguay vs Spain

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Uruguay vs. Spain

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

Team News: Uruguay vs. Spain injury, suspension list, predicted XIs - Sports Mole

Uruguay lineup vs. Spain: Predicted XI for 2026 World Cup fixture including double injury blow - Sports Mole

Team News: Uruguay vs. Cape Verde injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Team News: Spain vs. Saudi Arabia injury, suspension list, predicted XIs - Sports Mole

Uruguay lineup vs. Cape Verde: Predicted XI for World Cup 2026 Group H game amid Ronald Araujo injury fears - Sports Mole

Spain vs Cabo Verde FIFA World Cup 2026: Squads, Timings, Venue, Preview, Injury news And More - The Sunday Guardian