Group F · Group stage

Tunisia vs Japan

Jun 21, 2026, 4:00 AM · Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 51%

Tunisia23.9%

Model baseline 23.9%

Draw24.7%

Model baseline 24.7%

Japan51.4%

Model baseline 51.4%

Market Sources

Third-party probability and odds inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewTunisia 23.9%Draw 24.7%Japan 51.4%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Polymarket

Tunisia vs. Japan - Player Props

Fresh

No usable probability returned.

As of: Jun 26, 2026, 3:10 PM
Reliability: 38%
Issue: Matched Polymarket event, but no complete win/draw/loss moneyline markets were found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Tunisia1.15xG Japan1.77

1-111.6%

1-29.7%

0-18.9%

0-28.5%

2-16.3%

0-06.1%

1-35.7%

2-25.6%

1-05.5%

0-35.0%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Group stage · Jun 21, 2026, 4:00 AM · Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe.

Jun 21, 2026, 4:00 AM · reliability 92%

Social

From ‘Captain Tsubasa’ to the World Cup, China’s love affair with Japan football lives on - Malay Mail

Unverified social/media report: From ‘Captain Tsubasa’ to the World Cup, China’s love affair with Japan football lives on    Malay Mail

Jun 24, 2026, 11:04 PM · reliability 38%

Social

Preview: England vs Japan - prediction, team news, lineups - Sports Mole

Unverified social/media report: Preview: England vs Japan - prediction, team news, lineups    Sports Mole

Apr 1, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Injury

Japan Aims for Group First Place Despite Injuries in Sweden Clash - 조선일보

Japan Aims for Group First Place Despite Injuries in Sweden Clash    조선일보

Jun 25, 2026, 9:10 PM · reliability 66%