Group F · Group stage

Netherlands vs Sweden

Jun 20, 2026, 5:00 PM · NRG Stadium, Houston

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 53%

Netherlands50.4%

Model baseline 50.4%

Draw24.1%

Model baseline 24.1%

Sweden25.5%

Model baseline 25.5%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewNetherlands 50.4%Draw 24.1%Sweden 25.5%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Netherlands1.84xG Sweden1.26

1-111.1%

2-19.6%

1-07.7%

2-07.6%

1-26.6%

2-26.0%

3-15.9%

0-05.1%

0-15.1%

3-04.7%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Group stage · Jun 20, 2026, 5:00 PM · NRG Stadium, Houston.

Jun 20, 2026, 5:00 PM · reliability 92%

Injury

Netherlands Faces Greece in Nations League Clash Amid Growing Injury List - SuaraGarut.ID

Netherlands Faces Greece in Nations League Clash Amid Growing Injury List    SuaraGarut.ID

Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM · reliability 66%

Injury

Greece 2-2 Netherlands: Christos Tzolis injury, Dutch draw after fightback - BBC

Greece 2-2 Netherlands: Christos Tzolis injury, Dutch draw after fightback    BBC

Oct 1, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Arsenal star Kai Havertz forced off injured in Netherlands vs Germany clash - Bulinews

Arsenal star Kai Havertz forced off injured in Netherlands vs Germany clash    Bulinews

Sep 24, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Nordfeldt left out and Elanga joins injury list as Sweden name Nations League squad - Flashscore.com

Nordfeldt left out and Elanga joins injury list as Sweden name Nations League squad    Flashscore.com

Netherlands vs Sweden

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

Netherlands Faces Greece in Nations League Clash Amid Growing Injury List - SuaraGarut.ID

Greece 2-2 Netherlands: Christos Tzolis injury, Dutch draw after fightback - BBC

Arsenal star Kai Havertz forced off injured in Netherlands vs Germany clash - Bulinews

Nordfeldt left out and Elanga joins injury list as Sweden name Nations League squad - Flashscore.com

Netherlands XI vs Morocco: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup 2026 today - London Evening Standard

Team News: Netherlands vs. Morocco injury, suspension list, predicted XIs - Sports Mole

France lineup vs. Sweden: Predicted XI for World Cup 2026 round of 32 game amid William Saliba doubt - Sports Mole

Netherlands lineup vs. Morocco: Predicted XI for 2026 World Cup clash including double fitness boost - Sports Mole

Japan Aims for Group First Place Despite Injuries in Sweden Clash - 조선일보

Team News: Japan vs. Sweden injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole