Group F · Group stage

Netherlands vs Japan

Jun 14, 2026, 8:00 PM · AT&T Stadium, Arlington

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 50%

Netherlands45.3%

Model baseline 45.3%

Draw25.1%

Model baseline 25.1%

Japan29.7%

Model baseline 29.7%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewNetherlands 45.3%Draw 25.1%Japan 29.7%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Netherlands1.69xG Japan1.34

1-111.6%

2-19.3%

1-07.5%

1-27.3%

2-06.9%

2-26.2%

0-15.8%

0-05.5%

3-15.2%

0-24.3%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Group stage · Jun 14, 2026, 8:00 PM · AT&T Stadium, Arlington.

Jun 14, 2026, 8:00 PM · reliability 92%

Social

Why Kaoru Mitoma isn’t playing for Japan at the 2026 World Cup - Bolavip US

Unverified social/media report: Why Kaoru Mitoma isn’t playing for Japan at the 2026 World Cup    Bolavip US

Jun 14, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Injury

Netherlands Faces Greece in Nations League Clash Amid Growing Injury List - SuaraGarut.ID

Netherlands Faces Greece in Nations League Clash Amid Growing Injury List    SuaraGarut.ID

Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM · reliability 66%

Injury

Greece 2-2 Netherlands: Christos Tzolis injury, Dutch draw after fightback - BBC

Greece 2-2 Netherlands: Christos Tzolis injury, Dutch draw after fightback    BBC

Oct 1, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Arsenal star Kai Havertz forced off injured in Netherlands vs Germany clash - Bulinews

Arsenal star Kai Havertz forced off injured in Netherlands vs Germany clash    Bulinews

Netherlands vs Japan

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

Why Kaoru Mitoma isn’t playing for Japan at the 2026 World Cup - Bolavip US

Netherlands Faces Greece in Nations League Clash Amid Growing Injury List - SuaraGarut.ID

Greece 2-2 Netherlands: Christos Tzolis injury, Dutch draw after fightback - BBC

Arsenal star Kai Havertz forced off injured in Netherlands vs Germany clash - Bulinews

Netherlands XI vs Morocco: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup 2026 today - London Evening Standard

Team News: Netherlands vs. Morocco injury, suspension list, predicted XIs - Sports Mole

Brazil Lineup vs. Japan: Neymar Injury Gets Major Carlo Ancelotti Update - Yahoo Sports

Team News: Brazil vs. Japan injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Netherlands lineup vs. Morocco: Predicted XI for 2026 World Cup clash including double fitness boost - Sports Mole

Japan lineup vs. Brazil: Predicted XI for World Cup last-32 clash after defensive injury scare - Sports Mole