Group A · Group stage

Mexico vs South Africa

Jun 11, 2026, 7:00 PM · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 57%

Mexico61.2%

Model baseline 61.2%

Draw21.1%

Model baseline 21.1%

South Africa17.7%

Model baseline 17.7%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewMexico 61.2%Draw 21.1%South Africa 17.7%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Mexico2.17xG South Africa1.10

2-19.9%

1-19.6%

2-09.0%

1-07.8%

3-17.1%

3-06.5%

2-25.4%

1-25.0%

0-04.4%

3-23.9%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Group stage · Jun 11, 2026, 7:00 PM · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City.

Jun 11, 2026, 7:00 PM · reliability 92%

Injury

Nations Championship: Wales suffer Josh Adams injury blow in South Africa - BBC

Nations Championship: Wales suffer Josh Adams injury blow in South Africa    BBC

Jul 18, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Mexico vs England team news, injuries and confirmed lineups - Squawka

Mexico vs England team news, injuries and confirmed lineups    Squawka

Jul 5, 2026, 11:42 PM · reliability 66%

Injury

England star 'nursing injury and huge doubt for Mexico clash' as Thomas Tuchel faces another selection dilemma - The Sun

England star 'nursing injury and huge doubt for Mexico clash' as Thomas Tuchel faces another selection dilemma    The Sun

Jul 5, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Team News: Mexico vs. England injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Team News: Mexico vs. England injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026    Sports Mole

Mexico vs South Africa

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

Nations Championship: Wales suffer Josh Adams injury blow in South Africa - BBC

Mexico vs England team news, injuries and confirmed lineups - Squawka

England star 'nursing injury and huge doubt for Mexico clash' as Thomas Tuchel faces another selection dilemma - The Sun

Team News: Mexico vs. England injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

England injury, suspension list and return dates vs. Mexico: Declan Rice, Reece James, Jarell Quansah latest - Sports Mole

England lineup vs. Mexico: Predicted XI for World Cup 2026 last 16 after Declan Rice injury update - Sports Mole

England injury news vs. Mexico: Declan Rice's "terrible" pain explained as World Cup 2026 fears emerge before round of 32 - Sports Mole

Mexico vs. England: Three Lions given Reece James injury boost before World Cup last-16 clash - Sports Mole

Mexico vs Ecuador lineups: Confirmed team news, predicted XIs, injury latest for World Cup 2026 - London Evening Standard

Team News: Mexico vs. Ecuador injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole