Group A · Group stage

Mexico vs South Korea

Jun 19, 2026, 1:00 AM · Estadio Akron, Zapopan

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 48%

Mexico43.9%

Model baseline 43.9%

Draw25.5%

Model baseline 25.5%

South Korea30.6%

Model baseline 30.6%

Market Sources

Third-party probability and odds inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewMexico 43.9%Draw 25.5%South Korea 30.6%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Polymarket

Prediction market API

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Mexico1.64xG South Korea1.33

1-111.9%

2-19.2%

1-07.7%

1-27.5%

2-06.9%

0-16.2%

2-26.1%

0-05.8%

3-15.0%

0-24.6%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Group stage · Jun 19, 2026, 1:00 AM · Estadio Akron, Zapopan.

Jun 19, 2026, 1:00 AM · reliability 92%

Social

Booed on their way to World Cup knockouts, does Mexico love this national team? - The Athletic - The New York Times

Unverified social/media report: Booed on their way to World Cup knockouts, does Mexico love this national team? - The Athletic    The New York Times

Jun 19, 2026, 6:48 AM · reliability 38%

Social

Cheat Sheet at the World Cup: Mexico win in crazy first game and South Korea fight back! - Sky Sports

Unverified social/media report: Cheat Sheet at the World Cup: Mexico win in crazy first game and South Korea fight back!    Sky Sports

Jun 12, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Injury

Team News: Czech Republic vs. Mexico injury, suspension list, predicted XIs for World Cup clash - Sports Mole

Team News: Czech Republic vs. Mexico injury, suspension list, predicted XIs for World Cup clash    Sports Mole

Jun 24, 2026, 1:00 AM · reliability 66%

Mexico vs South Korea

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Prediction market API

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

Booed on their way to World Cup knockouts, does Mexico love this national team? - The Athletic - The New York Times

Cheat Sheet at the World Cup: Mexico win in crazy first game and South Korea fight back! - Sky Sports

Team News: Czech Republic vs. Mexico injury, suspension list, predicted XIs for World Cup clash - Sports Mole

'Major boost for Hong Myung-bo's team': Full roster confirmed for Mexico match... 'Zero injured' Bae Jun-ho and Kim Taehyun ready to play [World Cup on-site] - starnewskorea.com

'First time entering Mexico' a boost for Hong Myung-bo's squad: Two injured players return → Full team operational... 'Intense' starting lineup competition officially kicks off [World Cup on-site] - starnewskorea.com

Team News: Mexico vs. South Africa injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Team News: South Korea vs Czech Republic injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Mexico's Injury Woes Ahead of World Cup Opener vs South Africa - 조선일보