Group B · Group stage

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Jun 12, 2026, 7:00 PM · BMO Field, Toronto

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 51%

Canada46.5%

Model baseline 46.5%

Draw25.2%

Model baseline 25.2%

Bosnia and Herzegovina28.3%

Model baseline 28.3%

Market Sources

Third-party probability and odds inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewCanada 46.5%Draw 25.2%Bosnia and Herzegovina 28.3%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Polymarket

Prediction market API

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Canada1.69xG Bosnia and Herzegovina1.28

1-111.8%

2-19.4%

1-08.0%

2-07.3%

1-27.1%

2-26.0%

0-15.9%

0-05.8%

3-15.3%

0-24.2%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Group stage · Jun 12, 2026, 7:00 PM · BMO Field, Toronto.

Jun 12, 2026, 7:00 PM · reliability 92%

Social

World Cup fans arrested after police officers assaulted at Canada vs Bosnia game - The Mirror

Unverified social/media report: World Cup fans arrested after police officers assaulted at Canada vs Bosnia game    The Mirror

Jun 13, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Injury

Canada stomps Qatar behind Jonathan David hat trick, horrific injury stops play - USA Today

Canada stomps Qatar behind Jonathan David hat trick, horrific injury stops play    USA Today

Jun 18, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Canada defender Moise Bombito available vs. Bosnia after injury fears - Canadian Soccer Daily -

Canada defender Moise Bombito available vs. Bosnia after injury fears    Canadian Soccer Daily -

Jun 12, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Prediction market API

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

World Cup fans arrested after police officers assaulted at Canada vs Bosnia game - The Mirror

Canada stomps Qatar behind Jonathan David hat trick, horrific injury stops play - USA Today

Canada defender Moise Bombito available vs. Bosnia after injury fears - Canadian Soccer Daily -

Moïse Bombito Makes Final Canada World Cup Roster Despite Injury Scare - Burgundy Wave

Canada handed triple World Cup injury boost as Jesse Marsch confirms final roster - The Mirror US

A look at Canada's injury updates ahead of FIFA World Cup opener - Daily Hive

Team News: Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Jayden Nelson replaces injured midfielder Marcelo Flores on Canada World Cup roster - CBC

Canada Names Injury Replacement Before World Cup Opener - Sports Illustrated