Group G · Group stage

Belgium vs Egypt

Jun 15, 2026, 7:00 PM · Lumen Field, Seattle

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Fused model output with market-implied probabilities when available.

Medium confidence · 51%

Belgium47.5%

Model baseline 47.5%

Draw24.8%

Model baseline 24.8%

Egypt27.7%

Model baseline 27.7%

Market Sources

Third-party probability inputs used by the fusion engine when a usable source is available.

Fused model viewBelgium 47.5%Draw 24.8%Egypt 27.7%

Market-implied probabilities are currently unavailable; model output is shown with source-gap context.

Crowd-implied signal

Crowd-implied probability signal

Missing

No usable probability returned.

As of: Unavailable
Reliability: 0%
Issue: No matching Polymarket event found.

Correct-Score Distribution

Top scoreline probabilities from the normalized score matrix.

xG Belgium1.74xG Egypt1.29

1-111.5%

2-19.4%

1-07.7%

2-07.3%

1-27.0%

2-26.1%

0-15.6%

3-15.5%

0-05.5%

3-04.3%

Evidence Summary

Timestamped context used by the analysis engine.

Official

Group stage · Jun 15, 2026, 7:00 PM · Lumen Field, Seattle.

Jun 15, 2026, 7:00 PM · reliability 92%

Social

Egypt coach denies Salah rift before World Cup match against New Zealand - Al Jazeera

Unverified social/media report: Egypt coach denies Salah rift before World Cup match against New Zealand    Al Jazeera

Jun 21, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 38%

Injury

Is Pedri injured? Why the Spain star is not playing against Belgium in today's World Cup match | Hindustan Times - Hindustan Times

Is Pedri injured? Why the Spain star is not playing against Belgium in today's World Cup match | Hindustan Times    Hindustan Times

Jul 11, 2026, 7:00 AM · reliability 66%

Injury

Belgium vs Egypt

Win / Draw / Loss Probabilities

Market Sources

Crowd-implied probability signal

Correct-Score Distribution

Evidence Summary

Official

Egypt coach denies Salah rift before World Cup match against New Zealand - Al Jazeera

Is Pedri injured? Why the Spain star is not playing against Belgium in today's World Cup match | Hindustan Times - Hindustan Times

Belgium's Courtois exits with injury before Spain winner - ESPN

Belgium Captain Youri Tielemans Out vs. Spain After Injury In Warmups - FOX Sports

Belgium XI vs Spain: DE BRUYNE IN - Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for World Cup 2026 today - Yahoo Sports UK

Team News: Spain vs. Belgium injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Belgium vs USA lineups: Confirmed team news, predicted XIs and injury latest for World Cup 2026 - London Evening Standard

Team News: USA vs. Belgium injury, suspension list, predicted XIs - Sports Mole

Team News: Argentina vs. Egypt injury, suspension list, predicted XIs | World Cup 2026 - Sports Mole

Argentina lineup vs. Egypt: Predicted XI for World Cup 2026 last-16 including triple fitness update - Sports Mole